Bitcoin rose to $81,432, up +2.20% in 24 hours, as traders awaited the US Federal Reserve's rate decision and a Galaxy research note calling an end to the bear market. Investors want to know if seasonal bitcoin strength after midterm elections is about to repeat.
What actually happened
Bitcoin's price sits at $81,432, up +2.20% over the past 24 hours, with a high of $81,636 and a low of $79,732, according to CoinGecko data. Trading volume reached $24.03 billion, and the market capitalisation stands at $1.64 trillion. Bitcoin has gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three US midterm elections, excluding 2010, according to CoinDesk. The S&P 500 has averaged 15.17% gains over the same window since 1950, per Hartford Funds data cited by CoinDesk. Galaxy's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, told investors the bear market 'likely ended in June' and that bitcoin is now 'in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,' according to CoinDesk.
How we got here
Bitcoin moves in roughly four-year cycles tied to its mining reward halving, which cuts new coin issuance by 50% every four years. Past bear markets lined up with midterm years, in 2014, 2018, 2022 and now 2026, CoinDesk reported. Bitcoin bottomed below $60,000 (USD) in June, then rallied more than 35% before this week's move. That timing means the post-midterm rallies CoinDesk tracked may reflect halving-driven cycles rather than US politics. Separately, bitcoin treasury firm Datavault AI disclosed this week that it could not withdraw bitcoin held at the Biconomy exchange since June, cutting reported assets by $92.2 million.
Why this matters for you
For holders, the setup is mixed. A seasonal tailwind and Galaxy's accumulation call point one way, but the Fed's decision on rates could push the other, since higher rates typically pull money out of riskier assets. For builders and treasury managers, Datavault AI's trouble is a reminder that holding bitcoin through an exchange balance is not the same as holding it in a wallet you control. Miners are also diversifying: Luxor Technology raised $16 million to expand its AI business and plans to hire about 12 people by year end, Chief Operating Officer Ethan Vera told The Block. That signals miners are hedging against bitcoin price swings.
The bigger question
Bitcoin has risen after each of the past three US midterm elections, but those years also lined up with halving-driven cycle bottoms. If bitcoin rallies again after 3 November 2026, will anyone be able to prove whether politics, monetary policy, or the mining cycle actually moved the price? Separating correlation from causation may stay impossible, no matter how the next 12 months unfold.
What to watch
The US midterm elections land on 3 November 2026. The Federal Reserve's rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference are due later today, with traders watching for any signal of a December rate move. Datavault AI is expected to file restated financial results following this week's disclosure. Luxor Technology plans to complete its hiring push by the end of 2026.
This article is information, not financial advice. Prices are a snapshot and change constantly. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.
