Galaxy Digital says bitcoin's bear market ended in June and told investors to accumulate, even as the price slipped -1.01% to $79,510 on 27 October 2026. The call matters because it argues the current drift near $79,510 is a buying window, not a warning sign.
What actually happened
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, wrote that 'we think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,' according to CoinDesk. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC since the June low under $58,000. Asset managers' net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of bitcoin's record high. Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks, after 44 weeks below it, Thorn noted. Galaxy said a weekly close below $76,540, followed by a month without recovery, would challenge its thesis, per The Block. Separately, StoneX raised its price target on bitcoin treasury firm Strive to $43 from $32, keeping a Buy rating. Strategy paused bitcoin purchases and bought back $205 million of STRC preferred shares. Its holdings equal roughly 4% of bitcoin's supply cap, with $3.9 billion in paper gains.
How we got here
Bitcoin hit a record above $126,000 before a prolonged slide tested conviction across the market, CoinDesk reported. By June 2026, prices had fallen under $58,000, a drop Galaxy now identifies as the cycle low. Since then, bitcoin has gained 38% from that low, though it remains roughly 35% below its record. A return to the all-time high would require a 53% gain from current levels, per Galaxy's own math. The firm points to fading long-term holder selling and reduced leverage as signs the market has absorbed its sellers, a pattern Galaxy says has preceded previous rallies. Strategy's pause in buying follows a long run of near-continuous accumulation.
Why this matters for you
For holders, Galaxy's call reframes recent weakness as a pause within an uptrend, not a reversal. If the thesis holds, accumulation near current levels could look favorable later, though Galaxy itself flags a weekly close below $76,540 as a warning line. For builders and treasury companies, StoneX's higher price target on Strive and Strategy's pullback from active buying show two different responses to the same price environment, caution from one, confidence from another. Users holding BTC through ETFs should note Galaxy's claim that funds added 87,000 BTC since June, a sign of steady institutional demand rather than panic buying or selling.
The bigger question
If fiscal deficits and rising government debt genuinely strengthen bitcoin's case as a fixed-supply asset, as Galaxy argues, how long can sentiment lag that structural shift before price catches up? Markets often price perfection into quiet periods, as Thorn noted. The open question is whether patience from long-term holders will outlast short-term doubt, or whether today's listless trading near $79,510 reflects a market still waiting for a catalyst nobody has named yet.
What to watch
Galaxy's technical warning line sits at $76,540, a weekly close below which would challenge its bullish case. Bitcoin's current price of $79,510 sits above that threshold, down -1.01% over the past 24 hours. Investors will watch whether ETF inflows continue the pace Galaxy cited, and whether Strategy resumes purchases after its pause. No fixed date is attached to these developments; the next test is simply the market's next weekly close.
This article is information, not financial advice. Prices are a snapshot and change constantly. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.
